On the Dynamics of Global Temperature

4 In this alternative theory of global temperature dynamics over the 5 annual to the glacial time scales, the accumulation of variations in so6 lar irradiance dominates the dynamics of global temperature change. A 7 straightforward recurrence matrix representation of the atmosphere/surface/deep 8 ocean system, models temperature changes by (1) the size of a forc9 ing, (2) its duration (due to accumulation of heat), and (3) the depth 10 of forcing in the atmosphere/surface/deep ocean system (due to in11 creasing mixing losses and increasing intrinsic gain with depth). The 12 model can explain most of the rise in temperature since 1950, and more 13 than 70% of the variance with correct phase shift of the 11-year solar 14 cycle. Global temperature displays the characteristics of an accumula15 tive system over 6 temporal orders of magnitude, as shown by a linear 16 f−1 log-log relationship of frequency to the temperature range, and 17 other statistical relationships such as near random-walk and distribu18 tion asymmetry. Over the last century, annual global surface tempera19 ∗[email protected] 1 ture rises or falls 0.063±0.028C/W/m per year when solar irradiance 20 is greater or less than an equilibrium value of 1366W/m at top-of21 atmosphere. Due to an extremely slow characteristic time scale the 22 notion of ’equilibrium climate sensitivity’ is largely superfluous. The 23 theory does not require a range of distinctive feedback and lag param24 eters. Mixing losses attenuate the effectiveness of greenhouse gasses. 25 Most recent warming can be explained without recourse to increases 26 in heat-trapping gases produced by human activities. 27